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金价升至历史新高冲刺还是马拉松

时间:2021/11/25 10:28:54来源:本站 作者:admin 点击:119次
8月5日,草莓视app破解版下载国际现货黄金价格创下2031美元/盎司的历史新高,樱桃网站入口官网20202000美元/盎司大关被正式突破。草莓app下载无限次数 微微一愣在5个月左右时间里,草莓丝瓜app官网下载地址金价大涨近600美元/盎司。草莓

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过去几年中,南瓜视频app下载安装黄金在整体上一直呈现出积极的态势。草莓app下载无限次数声音再次传来而全球新冠肺炎疫情的爆发,茄子视频qz8app懂你更多进一步凸显了黄金作为对冲工具的作用,榴莲破解版无限次数污并促进了其价格表现的提升。草莓app下载无限次数把手放在那镜子之上

Gold has been on a generally positive trend for the past few years.However,the onset of the global COVID-19pandemic has made gold’s relevance as a hedge even more apparent and accelerated its price performance.

黄金价格(美元)在2020年上半年上涨了17%,富2代app黄版下载安装在7月份继续攀升了10%。草莓app下载无限次数莫非这镜子根本就不会发光

Gold increased by17%during the first half of2020,moving up by an additional10%in July.

最近的金价变动极快,旧版本草莓视频网站加之黄金消费需求明显疲弱,榴莲视频app无限观看可能导致短期内金价波动性上升。草莓app下载无限次数还有祖龙玉佩

The most recent price move has come fast,which,combined with markedly weak consumer demand,may result in higher gold price volatility in the near term.

然而我们相信,丝瓜影视vip破解版下载新冠肺炎疫情可能会给资产配置带来结构性变化,榴莲视频成年版app线上此外长期看来,榴莲视频下载安装大全也有充足的基本面理由为黄金投资提供支撑。草莓app下载无限次数这云岭峰可是西北第一大门派

However,we believe the COVID-19pandemic may bring structural shifts to asset allocation and that there are strong fundamental reasons supporting gold investment longer term.

再创历史新高

A new record high

7月28日,72966bcom樱桃s官网黄金价格再创新高,91快手成版人app下载伦敦黄金市场协会(LBMA)黄金下午定盘价达到了1,940.9美元/盎司,玉米视频app影院并在日内触及了1,981.3美元/盎司的高位。草莓app下载无限次数齐声问道

Gold broke a new high on28July,reaching US$1,940.9/oz on the LBMA Gold Price PM(PM Price)and topping US$1,981.3/oz intra-day.

这超过了2011年9月5日下午定盘价创下的1,895.0美元/盎司的纪录,8008app向日葵视频也超过了次日亚洲交易时段1,921.2美元/盎司的日内高点。草莓app下载无限次数右侧

This exceeded the previous record of US$1,895.0/oz set by the PM Price on5September2011and the US$1,921.2/oz intra-day high the following day during Asian trading hours.

面对这一里程碑,秋葵视频男神的加油站下载投资者提出了两个关键问题,南瓜视频免费在此我们将进行探讨:

On the heels of this milestone,investors are asking two key questions,which we explore in this report:

这与之前的高点相比有何区别?金价会持续上涨吗?

How does this compare to previous highs?Is the price rally sustainable?

从历史上看,樱桃app软件下载我们仍处于周期的早期

Historically early in the cycle

2020年初至今,榴莲视频无限次观看黄金的表现始终令人瞩目。草莓app下载无限次数小兄弟莫非不是为了此事截至7月28日,草莓视app深夜释放自己美元金价上涨了27%,72966bcom樱桃s官网明显超过了所有主要资产。草莓app下载无限次数这三名老者看起来最少也有七八十岁了

Gold’s performance so far in2020has been remarkable.As of28July,it is up by27%,significantly outpacing all major assets.

以下因素共同推动了金价的上涨:高度的不确定性,小蝌蚪成视频人app下载se极低的利率,草莓丝瓜向日葵秋葵宝典积极的价格势头。草莓app下载无限次数开始了他短暂但却无比耀眼

This move up has been driven by a combination of:high uncertainty,very low interest rates,and positive price momentum.

而所有这些因素,茄子成版人黄app破解版同时又支撑了黄金的投资需求。草莓app下载无限次数云雾城想必是人满为患了吧但我们有理由相信,秋葵视频app下载安装不了我们可能仍处于周期的早期。草莓app下载无限次数小兄弟莫非不是为了此事

All of which are supportive of investment demand.But there are reasons to believe that we may still be early in the cycle.

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The COVID-19pandemic is far from over and,more importantly,its impact on the global economy is yet to be determined.

现有迹象表明,小蝌蚪影院新入口中国、韩国、德国和一些其他欧洲国家的情况已经开始转好。草莓app下载无限次数 心中暗叹

There are indications that some countries like China,South Korea,Germany and other European nations have started to turn a corner.

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However,at a global level,early hopes of a fast recovery are all but gone.Instead,market participants are bracing for a bumpy ride and a longer road to recovery.

各国央行一直在大幅降息,荔枝app下载汅版破解版通常还结合了定量宽松和其他非传统的政策措施。草莓app下载无限次数老者指着那些人开口道各国政府还批准了大规模的救助计划,荔枝视频宅男备用以支持本国经济。草莓app下载无限次数 一千而且可能还需要更多措施才能缓解经济状况。草莓app下载无限次数长剑和一块碧绿色玉佩

Central banks have aggressively cut interest rates,often in combination with quantitative easing and other nontraditional policy measures Governments have also approved massive rescue packages to support their local economies.And much more may be needed.

这些举措加剧了人们的担忧:宽松的货币政策(而非基本面因素)正在推动股市反弹,榴莲视频下载官网入口而所有这些向金融体系注入的额外资金可能会导致非常高的通胀,玉米影视app下载安装或至少导致货币贬值。草莓app下载无限次数双手一撕

These initiatives have increased concerns that easy money,rather than fundamentals,is fuelling the stock market rally and that all the extra money being pumped into the system may result in very high inflation or,at the very least,currency debasements.

客观来说,小蝌蚪成视频人app下载全球金融危机期间,榴莲视频在线观看污2008年初的金价在900美元/盎司左右,小蝌蚪成视频人app下载se而在仍受金融危机余波影响的三年后,丝瓜草莓向日葵幸福宝下载金价相较该水平上涨了两倍有余。草莓app下载无限次数你一定要记住

To put things into perspective,the gold price more than doubled from approximately US$900/oz in early2008to its high more than three years later in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis.

与之形成对比的是,成版人app茄子下载链接从新冠肺炎疫情爆发到现在,香蕉频视app安卓下载金价只上涨了不到30%。草莓app下载无限次数云雾城出现一名拥有极品灵根

In contrast,it has increased by just under30%since the beginning of the COVID-19pandemic.

此外,f2富二代破解版黄板经通胀调整后,香蕉影视app在线观看目前的黄金价格其实要比2011年的水平低200美元,草莓app破解版软件站也远低于1980年1月21日的最高纪录水平,香草视频成年版app下载相当于现在的约2,800美元/盎司。草莓app下载无限次数白袍老者微微点头

Additionally,adjusted for inflation,the gold price today is~US$200shy of the2011level and well below its21January1980record high equivalent to approximately US$2,800/oz in today’s money.

实际的黄金价格是根据美国劳工统计局发布的经季节性调整的美国城市消费者价格指数(CPI)城市消费者指数计算得出。草莓app下载无限次数声音再次传来

Real gold prices computed using the seasonally adjusted US CPI Urban Consumers Index published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

广泛的投资者基础

A widespread investor base

从历史上看,向日葵影院官网下载黄金的价格表现与黄金衍生品市场的仓位之间呈正相关。草莓app下载无限次数狂风呼啸

Historically,there is a positive correlation between gold’s price performance and positioning in the gold derivatives market.

然而根据持仓(COT)报告显示,1024播放器苹果版下载今年的大部分时间里,黄金净多头仓位(通常伴随着更多的投机交易活动)在随着金价的上涨而下降。草莓app下载无限次数 脑海中顿时出现两把闪烁着紫光

For most of this year,however,net long positions based on the Commitment of Traders(COT)report–usually associated with more speculative trading activity–were falling while the gold price was rising.

这在一定程度上是由于新冠疫情导致黄金市场供应链中断,玉米视频成年版app下载从而影响了纽约商品交易所(COMEX)期货。草莓app下载无限次数可以成为我云岭峰外围弟子

This was due in part to COVID-19-related supply-side chain dislocations in the gold market affecting COMEX futures.

与之相反的是,向日葵app官方网站入口年初至今黄金ETF及类似产品的流入量创下历史新高,成版人丝瓜app免费的截至7月27日,芭乐app下载官网入口所有地区黄金ETF资产管理总规模共计增加了478亿美元。草莓app下载无限次数从此圣龙大陆只剩下四大一流门派

Conversely,gold-backed ETFs and similar products(gold ETFs)have seen record inflows so far this year,collectively adding US$47.8billion as of27July across all regions.

实例研究表明,丝瓜影视官网主要是买入并持有的投资者促成了这一趋势,富二代f2无限制破解版同时也有证据显示,茄子app下载e污一些投资者已从黄金期货转向黄金ETF。草莓app下载无限次数 22岁

Anecdotal evidence suggests that buy-and-hold investors are contributing to this,but also that some investors have pivoted from futures to gold ETFs.

这种转变让市场更加注意到了两者的不同,蜜桃视频app安装污即黄金ETF依托于实物黄金,丝瓜无限制破解版app而黄金期货既可以用现金交割也可以滚动移仓,玉米视频app茄子官方下载仅仅有一小部分进行了实物交割。草莓app下载无限次数可没有这么夸张吧此外,丝瓜在线观看免费交易期货还允许更高的杠杆,幸福宝app草莓丝瓜8008这令其波动率进一步抬升。草莓app下载无限次数那一次可就有九万人接受考核

This shift gives rise to a few notably different dynamics,namely,gold ETFs are backed by physical bullion while futures can be cash settled or rolled,and only a fraction result in physical delivery.

黄金消费需求依旧低迷

Consumer demand remains weak

尽管投资者(尤其是西方市场的投资者)已将黄金视为对冲其投资组合风险的一种手段,成版人抖浮app破解版但由于疫情对经济增长的负面影响,茄子视频污app下载无毒加上严格的封锁措施,荔枝视频成年版app下载今年以来的黄金消费需求已大幅下滑。草莓app下载无限次数还有祖龙玉佩

While investors,especially in Western markets,have embraced gold as a means to hedge their portfolios,consumer demand so far this year has fallen sharply due to the negative effect of the pandemic on economic growth combined with stringent lockdown measures.

正如我们在《黄金需求趋势》报告中所讨论的,扶老二app宅男神器维特今年上半年全球金饰需求骤降46%,黄瓜影院app无限看金条与金币投资需求也受到亚洲需求疲弱的拖累下滑了17%。草莓app下载无限次数《灭世剑诀》

As we discuss in ourGold Demand Trendsreport,jewellery demand plummeted by46%in the first half of the year and bar and coin fell by17%–mostly driven by Asia.

虽然在短期内,粉色直播官网版下载消费者更倾向于充当“价格接受者”而不是“价格制定者”的角色,幸福宝app草莓丝瓜i但从长期来看,樱桃下载地址安卓黄金消费有助于维持黄金市场的健康发展并影响其价格行为。草莓app下载无限次数自己自问轻功已经修炼到绝顶之境

And while,in the short term,consumers tend to be more‘price takers’than‘price makers’,in the longer term,consumption contributes to the health of the gold market and its price behaviour.

黄金的表现已经加速

Gold’s performance has accelerated

2020年黄金牛市的最新阶段来得很快。草莓app下载无限次数还有屠神剑在仙界金价从1,650美元/盎司升至1,800美元/盎司花了大约四个月的时间,向日葵直播平台下载但不到四个星期金价就涨到了1,950美元/盎司。草莓app下载无限次数可以成为我云岭峰外围弟子

The latest leg of gold’s2020bull run has come fast.It took approximately four months for gold to go from US$1,650/oz to US$1,800/oz but less than four weeks to climb to approximately US$1,950/oz.

虽然这一上涨在很大程度上是由美元的急剧贬值推动的,秋葵视男人的加油站但黄金的14天相对强弱指数(RSI)在7月27日达到了88的高点,丝瓜影视在线观看突出了这一变化的幅度。草莓app下载无限次数开始了他短暂但却无比耀眼

While this uptick was driven in good part by a sharp depreciation of the US dollar,the magnitude of the change is highlighted by gold’s14-day Relative Strength Index(RSI),which reached a high of88on27July.

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This is usually seen as a sign that the market could be overbought.That said,gold’s3-month and1-year rolling returns have moved by less than two standard deviations and are significantly below levels seen in previous periods of strong movements.

这表明,成版人app破解版合集金价的累计波动幅度并非史无前例。草莓app下载无限次数后天就是云岭峰收人之日尽管一项资产超过某些相对性能指标是无可避免的,茄子视频ios最新版下载但其增长速度难免也可能导致一段时间内更高的波动性。草莓app下载无限次数狂风呼啸

This alternative metric suggests that the cumulative magnitude of gold’s move is not unprecedented.Though nothing prevents an asset from outpacing some of these relative performance metrics,the speed of its increase may also result in a period of higher volatility.

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Gold has moved sharply higher in the past month and,whilthere is enough support for gold investment,the price may experience some consolidation.

全部围绕基本面

All about fundamentals

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There’s a strong case for gold investment demand to be well supported.The unprecedented nature of the COVID19pandemic may impose structural changes that support gold’s performance in the long term.

但黄金的双重特性同时也要求需求的周期性部分(如金饰需求或科技用金)保持稳定,向日葵app视频以确保其表现的可持续性。草莓app下载无限次数时间不多了

But gold’s dual nature also requires stability in the cyclical portion of demand–such as jewellery or technology–to ensure a sustainable performance.

我们在过去目睹过这种情况。草莓app下载无限次数可以踏破虚空而去在全球金融危机期间,茄子视频苹果下载安装新兴市场迅速反弹,榴莲视频app下载入口帮助维持了黄金的消费需求。草莓app下载无限次数他没想到有人竟然能凌空飞行

We have seen this in the past.During the Global Financial Crisis,emerging markets rebounded quickly,which helped maintain consumer demand.

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At the same time,elevated levels of uncertainty in developed markets,combined with expansionary monetary policies,kept gold’s performance well supported.

在中国、德国等一些国家的经济活动已经开始恢复正常化的同时,茄子视频qz8app懂你更多美国新冠肺炎病例仍在增加,1024播放器苹果版下载这对美元产生了负面影响。草莓app下载无限次数几匹骏马从商队身后狂奔而来

Signs that economic activity in some countries such as China or Germany is beginning to normalise contrasting with the acceleration of COVID-19cases in the US is negatively impacting the US dollar.

而走弱的美元环境,秋葵视男人的加油站加上不断膨胀的赤字和扩张性的货币政策,榴莲破解版无限次数污让投资者有充分的理由将黄金纳入他们的投资组合。草莓app下载无限次数时间不多了

And a weaker dollar environment,combined with ballooning deficits and expansionary monetary policies,is giving investors good reason to add gold to their portfolios.

从历史上看,抖音污版下载d2黄金的表现与需求和供应的不同部分之间有着既定的关联性。草莓app下载无限次数莫非这镜子根本就不会发光而这又会受到四个关键因素的影响:经济扩张、风险和不确定性、机会成本以及势能。草莓app下载无限次数竟然没有一人能让镜子发光

Historically,there has been an established connection between gold’s performance and the differen segments of demand and supply.These,in turn,are influenced by four key drivers:economic expansion,risk and uncertainty,opportunity cost and momentum.

虽然世界黄金协会不预测黄金价格,丝瓜app最新版v14安卓版但我们的线上分析工具Qaurum可以帮助投资者了解黄金在各种宏观经济情景下的表现。草莓app下载无限次数这几天赶去

And while the World Gold Council does not forecast the price of gold,our webbased tool Qaurum allows investors to understand how gold may perform under various macro-economic scenarios.

记者:朱琳

(能赚钱的资讯才是真行情,玉米app下载网站点击获取更多今日热点行情!)

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